Risk of getting infected
When the coronavirus pandemic begins its ninth month and the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. tops 10 million, it is human nature to wonder: What is my risk of getting infected?
And the answer is far from simple.
The risk of Covid-19 depends on many factors
An individual’s chance depends very much on his location and risk factors, such as age and occupation, and the unpredictable course of the pandemic in the future. And the future time depends on whether new restrictions will be added or whether one will relax and other factors. “So, it is a complex question.”
It’s a little easier to answer the question if it’s more specific. Look at the number of infections in your area to determine how risky it is to go shopping or use public transportation.
Currently, the risk of getting COVID is different in Wisconsin than in California, so each of these chances is a function of the prevalence of infectious people in your neighborhood, locations you
visit, and how protected you and others are with masks, ventilation, physical distance.
The use of risk calculators
A variety of calculators and other tools can help predict individual risks — or how risky the situation or event is. Here is an example.
Risk of contact with an infected person: Researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology and Stanford University worked together to develop a tool that estimates how likely it is that at least one person of at least a certain size will be contagious in a specific location.
With this instrument they are trying to communicate the risk of possible exposure.
Taking into account the size of the event, the risk level is the estimated probability, from zero to 100%, that at least one person present will be COVID-19-positive. The researchers assumed that there are usually ten times more cases than reported, although in regions with more tests this can drop to five times.
For example, on November 5, the chance of at least one person being infected at a 50-person meeting in Los Angeles was 69%; when that meeting was limited to 15 people, the risk was 29%.
Getting in touch with someone who is infected is only the first step in a chain of transmission”. Among the other things that affect your risk, of course, is whether the event is inside or outside, and the level of protection such as wearing masks and social remoteness.
Risk of infection while traveling:
To assess the specific risks of contracting COVID-19 during the trip, go to CDC information.
For example, short car rides with only your roommates and no stops are the lowest risk;
flights with intermediate stops are among the most risky ways to travel. Vacation rentals with only household members have a lower risk than bed-and-breakfast accommodations. Dormitory hostels are among the most risky.
My Covid Risk Tool
Experts from Brown University and Lifespan developed a tool called My COVID Risk. It assesses risk when participating in daily activities, ranking risk from low to high.
For example, going to an indoor gym near Los Angeles with 20 people attending for an hour, all wearing masks, entails an average risk of infection. By reducing the time to half an hour, with five people all wearing masks, the risk of activity is low.
Taking a 1 hour outdoor walk in Boston with five people, all masked, is very low risk.
Our conclusion There is not just one answer. Think of risks across the spectrum.
Nevertheless, there is a light at the end of the tunnel with a vacin and New Covid-19 rapid tests, which can deliver results in a matter of minutes in the field rather than taking days in clinical diagnostic labs, are starting to become widely available.
See also our related articles: